Methodology

How RefillRing estimates refill timing

RefillRing uses simple arithmetic so the output is easy to inspect and easy to challenge. The goal is not a “smart AI stock model”; the goal is a visible, believable household order board.

1) Runout estimate

For each item, RefillRing estimates days of stock remaining with this logic:

1. Days of stock left = (units left ÷ weekly use) × 7
2. The runout date is today plus that remaining-stock window, rounded up so partial weeks still count.

This assumes your weekly usage is reasonably stable.

2) Order-by date

RefillRing then subtracts two safety layers from the runout date:

• Order lead days — time needed to buy, deliver, or pick up the item
• Safety buffer days — breathing room for delays, busier-than-usual use, or a missed shopping run

The selected reminder posture adjusts the buffer:

• Calm: adds 2 extra buffer days
• Standard: uses the entered buffer as-is
• Lean: removes 1 buffer day, never below zero

3) Board status

• Order now if the order-by date is today or earlier
• Bundle soon if the order-by date is within the next 7 days
• Stable otherwise

4) Bundle logic

The “next sensible bundle date” is the earliest order-by date among items that need attention now or soon. This gives one practical moment to group a refill run rather than react separately to each item.

5) Quantity guidance

RefillRing estimates how many days one standard pack usually covers and uses that to suggest whether one pack is probably enough or whether two packs deserve consideration for a short-cover item.

Limits

The model does not know about seasonal spikes, guests, holidays, pet growth, or bulk-buy discounts unless you reflect those changes in the weekly-use number. For critical supplies, do not rely on this lightweight planner alone.